By Muhammad Osman
The chances of holding Sudan’s general-elections as scheduled in April 2010 are growing slimmer everyday as the two parties to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), continue to engage in futile brinksmanship and stall over laws.
Insiders have indicated that differences over divisive laws, namely the Referendum Act and the National Security Forces Act, have reached “a tense point”, according to Foreign Minister Deng Alor.
Attempting to seek answers to questions such as how did we reach this level of deterioration and why has the CPA failed is a waste of time, for the answers are well known to anybody following Sudanese politics since the signing of the CPA in 2005.
The trouble with the current situation is that it gives strong indication that the NCP and the SPLM might wash their hands in boredom and stage “a peaceful divorce” before the end of the transitional period. This of course raises fears of the possibility of a unilateral declaration of independence by south Sudan.
If this happens, the NCP will most likely go ahead with organizing the elections as they represent the only opportunity to gain legitimacy and salvage its head from the ICC gallows, even though that will not be the case.
In this case, what should the alliance of northern opposition do? In sum, boycott the elections. Here’s why I believe this should be the action to take.
The harbingers of the failure of these elections have already started to appear. Only three weeks after the voter-registration process kicked off on 01 November and the press is already rife with reports on widespread voter intimidation and rigging cases among many other irregularities committed by people suspected of ties to the NCP.
The NCP has even had no qualms about harnessing state capabilities to support its campaign for the registration. Many journalists have reported on state-owned cars being used to herd NCP supporters to the registration centers among many other fraudulent practices.
What we can deduce from all these widely-reported facts is that the ruling clique is resolved to accomplish the mission from the very get-going by tampering with the voter-registration records. This will undoubtedly prepare the ground for greater rigging in the coming poll.
Even the National Election Commission, the official regulatory body of the elections, has been accused by the opposition of lacking credibility and serving NCP interests. Similarly, it has been accused by the US-based Carter Center of putting hurdles in the way of international observation of the elections
Although the commission’s chairman, Abel Alier, has a good reputation but it is foolish to believe that an impartial body could exist in a single-party state.
The situation in the media arena, in terms of freedom of speech and impartiality of state-owned media, looks even worst. Broadcast-media is still tightly controlled by the NCP which means that no other political party could use it to campaign.
Opposition political parties remain hopelessly unable to operate freely due to restrictions imposed on their activities by the state security watchdog, the National Security and Intelligence Services. No opposition party is allowed to hold a rally without obtaining permission from the authorities.
Under these conditions, it makes sense to be suspicious about the intention of the NCP’s leadership. The party continues to give conclusive evidences that it is not interested in creating conducive environment for the elections.
It’s time to get tough. Northern opposition parties can no longer afford to sit on the sidewalk and wait as the NCP continues to prepare for its self-serving elections.
If the NCP does not agree to immediately lift restrictions on freedom of campaigning, open state-media, especially radio and television, to other political parties and facilitate movement of international observers, these sham elections should be boycotted without a single moment of hesitation. Otherwise the opposition would be throwing a lifeline to Al-Bashir and his party to gain legitimacy to help them confront international pressure.
Commentary published by the Sudanese English-speaking daily The Citizen on 01 December
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