Sudan’s fate in the NCP’s hands

Sudan’s fate in the NCP’s hands
By Mohammad Eltilib
10 December 2008

What does the next year have in store for Sudan?

The answer to this question is rather pessimistic; all prognoses indicate that President Al-Bashir will indeed be indicted by the ICC. Feverish efforts by the government to rally the countries in the UN’s Security Council to block the looming indictment seem to be of no avail so far.
I am supremely confident that neither Russia, despite its strained relations with the West in the aftermath of the Caucasus crisis, nor China would jeopardize their economic relations with the West by vetoing to defer the arrest warrant. The Chinese have already told the Sudanese government not to count on their veto.

The outcomes of this possible indictment would definitely include, among other things, the drastic fallback of ruling party the National Congress Party [NCP] to its old-time methods of petrifying the country and terrorizing the foreign presence in it as well as the total collapse of both the CPA and the already-stalled Darfur peace process. Moreover, the indictment would dissipate any hope for holding the elections which is slated for next year. How can a country that is faced with crises of the magnitude of Darfur and the ICC be able to hold fair election?

Realistic readings into the situation show that the Sudanese government has only two courses of action to take simultaneously on two pivots. On the ICC crisis pivot, the government has no choice but to extradite those for whom the ICC has already issued arrest warrants. I am specifically referring to the Militia Leader Ali Koshib and the State Minister for the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs Ahmad Harun. Handing over those two would send positive signs to both the International Community and the Darfur armed groups that the government is serious about achieving peace in Darfur; however; the government must in return demand that the international community provides solid assurances that the yet-to-be-issued arrest warrant for Al-Bashir would be suspended at least until the Darfur peace process comes through.

On the Darfur pivot, the government is also left with no choice but to execute a number of short-term actions in order to ensure that the rebel groups come to the negotiation table. These actions include strict abidance by the unilateral cease-fire declared by Al-Bashir and immediate halting of attacks on IDP camps, Secondly, the NCP and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement must concede to the plain fact that the Darfur peace process power can never succeed unless the power-sharing quotas stipulated in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement are reopened for amendment. On the other hand, pressure must be exerted by the international community on the rebel groups to attend the Doha negotiations powered by the Qatari initiative which at the moment seems to be the only initiative accepted by all the concerned.

The worst case scenario is that the NCP persists in defying the international community and stalling the peace process. Doing so will not do the NCP any good and might very well lead to its end.

The real problem, in my view, lies in the persistence of the NCP’s leadership on reneging on its commitments, not implementing the peace accords and defying international justice. We, as Sudanese, can only attribute the dire prospect of this country’s future to the ruling party which only cares about perpetuating its reign. Owing to the persistent procrastination by the NCP’s leadership, almost three years have elapsed since the signing of the CPA and its implementation is continuing at snail-pace. The Darfur peace process is not better off either due to continues attacks by the government in the war-ravaged region.

The clock is ticking fast and the country is, quite simply, on the brink of what could turn out to be one of the most chaotic situations ever. All what we should be thinking about at the moment is survival. In my view, we can neither afford to wait for the election nor can we stand tied-handed in the face of the irresponsible attitudes of the NCP’s leadership. The NCP leadership has a historic opportunity to repent for all the atrocities of the past by stepping down voluntarily and paving the way for forming a coalition government to include all the parties with proportionate shares of power.

In conclusion, Sudan is at stake. If the NCP persists in its current attitude and react as violently as expected when the arrest warrant is issued in the upcoming months, the whole country will undoubtedly be catapulted to oblivion.

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