The possible scenarios of the census results

Sudan yesterday announced the long-anticipated census results. The results put the total population of Sudan at only 39m, 8m of them live in the south. Clearly the SPLM, as it has already indicated, will not acknowledge these results and will see it as another attempt from its cunning partner to pave the way for rigging the next elections.
It is also known that the census operation was marred with many flaws such as the fact that the enumerators were unable to access many areas in the westernmost region of Darfur. I think yesterday's announcement marks the beginning of the most crucial stage, if the SPLM does not bow to accept these results, it means the inevitable delay of both, the elections and the referendum. The current stand off also introduces another frightening possibility, the declaration of early Independence.

Sudan Tribune hacked - Media observation

Khartoum: Mohammad El-Tilib

The web-based Sudan Tribune has apparently been hacked. Attempts to access the site show a screen full of strange figures and question marks!

Will inform you with further information as we receive them.

SOR

Prominent Islamist Opposition leader calls on Bashir to "surrender" to ICC

12 January
[Edited text of a report by Reuters]





The prominent Islamist opposition leader and former godfather of the current regime, Hassan Al-Turabi, has called on President Al-Bashir to hand himself over to the International Criminal Court, saying he should take responsibility for war crimes in Darfur.

According to Reuters, Al-Turabi told reporters Al-Bashir should surrender himself to save Sudan from sanctions and political turmoil that would follow if he defied the court and carried on ruling as a wanted man.

"There is no judicial justice in this country, As far as we are concerned there is no access to justice except through the international court," al-Turabi said in the Khartoum headquarters of his opposition Popular Congress Party. "It is up to the government to hand him over or for him personally to go for the sake of his country, to protect his country against any further sanctions against the government," he added.

Turabi also said that Al-Bashir should take personal responsibility for atrocities and war crimes carried out in almost six years of fighting in Sudan's west. "Politically we think he is culpable. He is responsible for all the crimes. In politics, whatever happens below a minister, for example, he will have to resign for it and assume responsibility” he said and went on "And he should assume responsibility for whatever is happening in Darfur -- displacement, the burning of all the villages, systematic rapes."

Turabi said he could not comment on whether Bashir had personally orchestrated war crimes in Darfur -- just that the president should take political responsibility for atrocities carried out under his leadership. The controversial opposition leader added he did not expect Bashir to take his advice. "Probably the government will not hand him over ... He will not surrender himself to save his country or to go and prove he is not guilty."

SOR notes it is not the first time Al-Turabi had hinted on his support for the ICC’s proposed indictment against Al-Bashir; however; he never expressed it so bluntly.


As foreseen, Al-Turabi was taken into custody by the security authorities few days ago. security sources leaked information that he might stand trial!

All Rights Reserved – The Sudanese Online Reporter - 2009

ICC crisis affecting foreign investment in Sudan, minister says

11 January
Khartoum,
Muhammad El-Tilib

A Sudanese minister has said that the ICC issue is one of the biggest challenges affecting foreign investment in Sudan.

In a press conference held yesterday, the Minister of Investment Gorge Bouring said that foreign investment in Sudan had been affected by the ICC crisis as well as the warnings voiced by some on the possible collapse of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and added that these two issues were making foreign investors think that Sudan is not safe.

The minister further said that the investment in Sudan was faced with three challenges, the international financial meltdown, the global slump in the oil prices and most notably, the ICC crisis.

All Rights Reserved – the Sudanese Online Reporter - 2009

Breaking: JEM warns of "imminent attacks" on military positions in all Sudanese towns

Khartoum
22 December
[edited text of a report published by Sudan Tribune on 22 December]


The Justice and Equality Movement [JEM] has warned it will very soon launch attacks on the positions of the Sudanese government in all Sudanese towns and called on soldiers of the army to join them.

The JEM's deputy general commander, Sulayman Sandal, urged in a press statement released today the Sudanese people to remain away from the military positions in all the Sudanese cities and to stay at home because "our attack against these cities is imminent”. The statement went on to warn that this warning "extends to all diplomatic missions and embassies" so as to enable them to take the necessary measures to ensure the safety and security of their employees and properties.

In a second separate statement, the JEM's Secretary for Political Affairs Ahmad Tugud called on the Sudanese soldiers to join the rebel movement adding "you are not our enemies." He also pledged to retain their salaries, rights and positions in the army.

SOR notes that rumors of imminent attacks by the JEM started to fly around since last week when the Sudanese media carried reports on correspondences exchanged between the government and the UNAMID on movement by JEM’s troops in North Darfur State.

All rights reserved - Sudanese Online Reporter 2008

Breaking: Sudanese military aircraft reportedly bomb water tank in North Darfur

Sudanese Online Reporter

15 December 2008

Muhammad El-Tilib, Abd-al-Mun’im Abu Idris

The Darfur rebel faction of the Sudan Liberation Movement [SLM] led by Abd-al-Wahid Muhamad Nur has alleged that a military aircraft belonging to the Sudanese Armed Forces [SAF] has shelled a water tank in North Darfur State.

The SLM's field-commander, Salah Pop, told the Sudanese Online Reporter via the phone from Darfur that an Antanov aircraft belonging to the SAF had shelled a water tank located to the west of Kutum area in North Darfur State at 5:30 pm local time. Pop further revealed that there were a number of citizens present near the tank when the aircraft attacked adding that they were yet to arrive at the scene of the incident to determine the damages caused.

The Sudanese Online Reporter has tried to contact the press officer for the Sudanese Armed Forces to verify the story; however; no one was available to comment.

All rights reserved – Sudanese Online Reporter - 2008

UNAMID warns of possible attack by JEM on major towns in Sudan

Sudanese Online reporter
Muhammad El-Tilib
Khartoum 14 December 2008



The UN-AU Joint Peacekeeping Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) has warned of a possible attack by the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) against one of the major towns in Sudan including Khartoum.

In an internal document of which SOR has obtained a copy, UNAMID said it had received information at 1900 hrs local time from the Government of Sudan on movements by the JEM's troops in Northern Darfur. According to UNAMID, the final destination of the troops is yet to be known; however; the UNAMID warned that there was a possibility that Al-Fashir, El-Obeid or Khartoum may be targeted.

All righst reserved - SOR

Breaking: Sudanese armed forces clash with local police in Abyei and the UN appeals for calm

December 12, 2008
Sudanese Online Reporter




Media outlets have carried a breaking story about clashes breaking out between the Sudanese Armed Forces [SAF] and units of the local police in the disputed oil-rich town of Abyei.

The news website Sudan Tribue quoted Luka Biong Deng, a senior official in the Government of South Sudan, as saying on Friday that the SAF had clashed with local police in Abyei town. According to Sudan Tribune, Biong further said tension was high after the deadly clashes; however; he was unable to provide further details about what caused the clashes.

As Sudan Tribune did not indicate any information whether the clashes have resulted in any casualties, Reurters; however, cited a UN official as saying that at least one person was shot dead in the fighting that took place between members of the joint north-south Sudanese army and police units in the town. According to the UN official, an unknown number of people were seriously injured and no information were yet available on whether the casualties were northern or southern.

UN appeals for pacification

The head of the UN Mission in Sudan, Ashraf Qazi, said the incident involved members of Abyei's military Joint Integrated Unit and its Joint Integrated Police Unit. Qazi released a statement saying he deplored the "violent incident" which had resulted in "the loss of life and injuries" and called on residents of Abyei and the nearby settlements of Diffra and Agok to stay calm.

All rights reserved - Sudanese Online Reporter - 2008

US president voices frustration at UNAMID deployment, warns Sudanese President

Sudanese Online Reporter
12 December

The US President George Bush has expressed frustration at the rate of deployment of peacekeepers in Darfur and stressed the necessity for the UN to expedite sending troops to the war-torn region.

Bush also warned President al-Bashir that “He cannot escape accountability” for the conflict in the region.

Following a meeting with Dr. Halima Bashir, a Darfuri woman who was tortured and gang-raped after witnessing government militia surrounding a school and raping dozens of girls and their teachers, the US president said "I am frustrated with the pace of activities" referring to the deployment process of UNAMID. Bush further stressed that the UN must expedite sending troops to the war-torn region of Darfur where an estimated number of 2.7 million people are displaced by attacks.

Bush also reaffirmed US support for the peace process powered by the UN-AU. "We support the mediation process by the AU-UN mediator,” Bush said and added “In other words, we recognize in order for there to be peace in Darfur that parties must come to the table in good faith and solve the problems."

The outgoing US President did not leave the issue of possible ICC indictment against Al-Bashir unaddressed. “It’s very important for President Bashir of Sudan to know that he cannot escape accountability and that if he so choose, he could change people’s lives, the condition of people’s lives very quickly.” He stressed.

SOR notes that the US’s special envoy to Sudan, Williamson, had previously warned that the US will veto any resolution to defer the indictment of Al-Bashir unless progress is made on the grounds in Darfur.

All rights reserved – Sudanese Online Reporter - 12 December 2008

Sudan’s fate in the NCP’s hands

Sudan’s fate in the NCP’s hands
By Mohammad Eltilib
10 December 2008

What does the next year have in store for Sudan?

The answer to this question is rather pessimistic; all prognoses indicate that President Al-Bashir will indeed be indicted by the ICC. Feverish efforts by the government to rally the countries in the UN’s Security Council to block the looming indictment seem to be of no avail so far.
I am supremely confident that neither Russia, despite its strained relations with the West in the aftermath of the Caucasus crisis, nor China would jeopardize their economic relations with the West by vetoing to defer the arrest warrant. The Chinese have already told the Sudanese government not to count on their veto.

The outcomes of this possible indictment would definitely include, among other things, the drastic fallback of ruling party the National Congress Party [NCP] to its old-time methods of petrifying the country and terrorizing the foreign presence in it as well as the total collapse of both the CPA and the already-stalled Darfur peace process. Moreover, the indictment would dissipate any hope for holding the elections which is slated for next year. How can a country that is faced with crises of the magnitude of Darfur and the ICC be able to hold fair election?

Realistic readings into the situation show that the Sudanese government has only two courses of action to take simultaneously on two pivots. On the ICC crisis pivot, the government has no choice but to extradite those for whom the ICC has already issued arrest warrants. I am specifically referring to the Militia Leader Ali Koshib and the State Minister for the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs Ahmad Harun. Handing over those two would send positive signs to both the International Community and the Darfur armed groups that the government is serious about achieving peace in Darfur; however; the government must in return demand that the international community provides solid assurances that the yet-to-be-issued arrest warrant for Al-Bashir would be suspended at least until the Darfur peace process comes through.

On the Darfur pivot, the government is also left with no choice but to execute a number of short-term actions in order to ensure that the rebel groups come to the negotiation table. These actions include strict abidance by the unilateral cease-fire declared by Al-Bashir and immediate halting of attacks on IDP camps, Secondly, the NCP and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement must concede to the plain fact that the Darfur peace process power can never succeed unless the power-sharing quotas stipulated in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement are reopened for amendment. On the other hand, pressure must be exerted by the international community on the rebel groups to attend the Doha negotiations powered by the Qatari initiative which at the moment seems to be the only initiative accepted by all the concerned.

The worst case scenario is that the NCP persists in defying the international community and stalling the peace process. Doing so will not do the NCP any good and might very well lead to its end.

The real problem, in my view, lies in the persistence of the NCP’s leadership on reneging on its commitments, not implementing the peace accords and defying international justice. We, as Sudanese, can only attribute the dire prospect of this country’s future to the ruling party which only cares about perpetuating its reign. Owing to the persistent procrastination by the NCP’s leadership, almost three years have elapsed since the signing of the CPA and its implementation is continuing at snail-pace. The Darfur peace process is not better off either due to continues attacks by the government in the war-ravaged region.

The clock is ticking fast and the country is, quite simply, on the brink of what could turn out to be one of the most chaotic situations ever. All what we should be thinking about at the moment is survival. In my view, we can neither afford to wait for the election nor can we stand tied-handed in the face of the irresponsible attitudes of the NCP’s leadership. The NCP leadership has a historic opportunity to repent for all the atrocities of the past by stepping down voluntarily and paving the way for forming a coalition government to include all the parties with proportionate shares of power.

In conclusion, Sudan is at stake. If the NCP persists in its current attitude and react as violently as expected when the arrest warrant is issued in the upcoming months, the whole country will undoubtedly be catapulted to oblivion.

All rights reserved - Sudanese Online Reporter 2008